Remembering COVID: Past Epidemics and History Lessons of the Future
James Pearce considers how the memory of Russia’s plague of 1771 may give some insight into how this year’s pandemic will be treated by historians
Plague Riot, Ernst Lissner (watercolour, 1930). Image credit: Public domain.
As someone who researches history in the present day, I often ponder how modern Russia will be taught to my children and grandchildren. Especially now – I cannot pass a single tweet, newspaper article or a conversation without 'extraordinary times' thrown in somewhere. Indeed they are, but Russia has had extraordinary times and epidemics before.
I decided to flick through my vast collection of Russian history books recently in search of those epidemics, and something that particularly stood out as food for thought would be the Moscow plague riots of 1771. It is an epidemic many have never heard of, including most of my Russian friends. The timeliness of it matters, because, like other epidemics in history (namely the Spanish Flu), it gets buried amid other important historical events.
as the quarantine began, Muscovites were literally thrown out of businesses onto the streets
While not completely forgotten, both do miss out on meaningful shelf space. Browsing through contemporary Russian school history textbooks this last week, I noticed that information on the Spanish Flu is basic at best. And, in fairness to school teachers, that period is difficult enough to cover. The amount of information they can provide on the 1917 revolutions is limited due to time constraints. As one history teacher told me back in 2017, many other events, like 1905, are lucky to get fifteen minutes.
So what about 1771?
The Russian-Turkish war was still ongoing when the plague of 1770-1772 broke out in Russia. It was fought as an Eastern Orthodox coalition, led by the Russian Empire, against the Ottomans in the Balkans and Caucasus. Troops stationed in Moldova began to develop fever-like symptoms and swollen lymph nodes. The Finnish doctor accompanying the troops identified this as the bubonic plague. Out of 1,500 soldiers infected, just 300 survived. Catherine II (or 'the Great') was forced to lower taxes and conscription, which affected Russia's military capabilities in the affected area; Moldova was later ceded to the Turks.
As the plague reached Moscow in February 1771, it took out a textile mill and began to rapidly spread through the city. In September, Moscow declared a state of emergency. The real numbers of people in Moscow infected by the plague were both unknown and not properly recorded, though it is estimated around 100,000 people died. As the quarantine began, Muscovites were literally thrown out of businesses onto the streets. The rich had already left the city for the neighbouring countryside, as the city's poor were shut out onto the streets as contaminated buildings were burned to the ground, sometimes without paying compensation to the owners. This, combined with conspiracy theories doing the rounds, led Muscovites to riot.
An engraving of Archbishop Ambrosius’s murder, 1845, by Frédéric Lacroix
The Archbishop Ambrosius tried to prevent Muscovites from gathering at the Icon of the Virgin Mary in central Moscow as a quarantine measure. Instead, huge crowds turned up at Red square, invaded the Kremlin and destroyed his residence. The following day, rioters murdered the Archbishop. Grigory Orlov, a former lover of Catherine, was sent in to take control of the situation – and he did. The number of cases dropped in October and November as quarantine measures actually took effect and Orlov managed to reverse public opinion in the government's favour.
Unlike the Spanish Flu and plague riots of 1771, coronavirus is not shielded by bigger events in Russian history. Putin’s constitutional changes, protests in Khabarovsk and Navalny’s poisoning may be important, but those are sub-plots within sub-plots, and COVID-19 is the largest global epidemic since the Spanish Flu. The world is on lockdown, and as we have all discovered since March, distractions are hard to come by. Plus, 1771 and even the Spanish Flu were far less consequential in the grand scheme of things. That means while my future grandchildren may also never hear about 1771, COVID-19 ain't going anywhere.
a more democratic government might explain Russia’s coronavirus failures as proof of autocracy's limitations
The Russian government still wants to regain control over the trajectory. How it does this will determine part of COVID-19's future history lessons for subsequent Russian generations. Attempts at distorting reality will make the long term political consequences far more severe for the Russian government. The official numbers are blurred, as they were in 1771, though riots seem to have been avoided. Although it has no Orlov-type figure to rely on, the government's best bet is Orlov-like effectiveness.
How history is actually written in Russia also needs consideration. Each time the national history has undergone revisions, it has had to reflect the goals of the state. More specifically, its economic and foreign policy objectives must be outlined. In the early days of the USSR, for example, history was reconstructed to reflect Marxist doctrine. The Soviet system already had self-imposed restrictions, and this made the task much taller. Consequently, history was largely written from an economic standpoint.
A lot will also depend upon who is in power. Impossible to predict now – and I will not – but the type of government (authoritarian, notionally democratic etc.) will matter. Should Russia become a fully functional democracy, it will have a more open history by default. Authoritarian governments are more obsessed with information control, particularly where it can expose weaknesses. Relegating this part of history to a footnote could serve it well. Meanwhile, a more democratic government might explain Russia’s coronavirus failures as proof of autocracy's limitations, and promote the value of openness.
As for those textbooks I mentioned earlier, they were the 2015 textbook series; these have an anti-revolutionary slant. As these sentiments are shared by many of Russia's ruling elites today, it may be little wonder why the 1771 riots have not come up in recent discussion. Since rioting and protests haven’t singled out Russia in the global narrative (unlike the USA), the focus will probably be a global one where the Russian case is placed into a broader context. In my view, that is completely fair.
As for the Russian case, the future school history textbooks will probably fixate on the socio-economic effects of the virus and its impact on policy. Instagram and VKontakte stories of quarantine will replace diaries and love letters in a virtual textbook. Selfies of Russians wearing different masks will come with exam questions about why Russians felt the need to break quarantine rules just for a picture. Our grandchildren will think that was strange. Finally, the Moya Istoriya exhibitions in Russian cities will have their own COVID-19 rooms added. Schoolchildren have a lot to look forward to!
COVID-19 is a watershed moment in Russian history, whereas other pandemics have not been. As a historian, that is really exciting to think about.